|
Table of Contents
POPULATION PROJECTIONS AS A BASIS FOR PLANNING
It is obvious that plans for all phases of future development must be geared
to the future size of the community. How many people will there be for whom
provisions must be made for housing, for job opportunities, for shopping,
recreation, schools, and other facilities? A study of population trends
described below concludes that today’s planning for Middletown should be
based on a “target population” of 65,000 residents and that this will be
reached about 1990 or 2000.
Regional trends
When the center of Middletown was incorporated as a city at the close of the
Revolution, it had approximately the same population as Hartford,
New Haven, New London, Norwalk and Stonington. These were the largest
communities in Connecticut and all were located on the only major
transportation routes, the navigable waters. Middletown was, and still is,
the “middle town” of the State. Industrial development in New Haven and
Hartford outstripped that of Middletown; the principal railroad lines
bypassed it. But today’s development is chiefly one of decentralization.
The older centers are largely built up. Growth is spreading outward and new
facilities for transportation are again changing the patterns of development.
Middletown has long been the central city of the middle and lower
Connecticut Valley. It has provided the business, professional and service
center for that area. Until 20 or 30 years ago, the neighboring towns were
small rural places, and Middletown itself contained the largest proportion
of the Region’s population and business activity. As in all comparable
regions, the outlying towns have been picking up in the last two or three
decades. They have been accounting for a large share of the growth
everywhere.
The towns most closely related to Middletown are those which border it on
the north, east and south. For several years the Connecticut Development
Commission has been making studies of the various economic regions of the
state. Middletown and its neighboring communities have been appropriately
designated as the “Midstate Region.” The City and the six adjacent towns in
this Region constitute Middletown’s primary trading area and “area of
influence.” The communities of the Region are, to a considerable extent,
interdependent. Growth and development of each will depend on the growth of
the whole.
Table 1 shows the trends of population in these communities in the past two
decades. Comparison of census figures in Middletown for 1940 and subsequent
years is complicated by the fact that, prior to 1950, the residents of
institutions were counted as part of the population of their towns. In the
1950 and 1960 censuses, there persons are included in the population of the
city or town in which the institution is located. Thus, for Middletown, the
1940 census gives the actual number of residents of the City, excluding
residents of other places who happened to be at the State Hospital, Long
Lane Farm or Wesleyan University. But the 1950 and 1960 census figures for
Middletown include approximately 4,000 persons in these institutions, who
are not properly part of the residential population of the community.
For the purposes of planning, we are primarily concerned with space and
facilities for actual residents. Therefore their numbers have been
determined by subtracting from the 1950 and 1960 census figures the total
numbers in each of these years counted in the three institutions. The actual
census figures are given in the footnote to Table 1. This Table gives the
population of each of the communities of the Region in 1940, 1950 and 1960
and the percentage of regional population in each. It is seen that
Middletown was responsible for 64 percent of the Region’s residents in 1940,
but for only 50 percent in 1960. The share of the other towns rose in the
same period from 36 percent to 50. What is happening around virtually all
central cities is happening around Middletown.
TABLE 1
POPULATION TRENDS OF THE MIDSTATE REGION
| |
1940 |
1950 |
1960 |
| Number |
% of Region |
Number |
% of Region |
Number |
% of Region |
| Middletown |
26,495 |
63.9 |
25,644* |
56.3 |
29,419* |
49.9 |
| Cromwell |
3,281 |
7.9 |
4,286 |
9.4 |
6,780 |
11.5 |
| Portland |
4,321 |
10.4 |
5,186 |
11.4 |
7,496 |
12.7 |
| East Hampton |
2,955 |
7.1 |
4,000 |
8.8 |
5,403 |
9.2 |
| Haddam |
2,069 |
5.0 |
1,636 |
5.8 |
3,466 |
5.9 |
| Durham |
1,098 |
2.7 |
1,804 |
4.0 |
3,096 |
5.3 |
| Middlefield |
1,230 |
3.0 |
1,983 |
4.3 |
3,255 |
5.5 |
| Total |
41,449 |
100.0 |
45,539* |
100.0 |
58,915* |
100.0 |
| The Region Outside Middletown |
14,954 |
36.1 |
19,895 |
43.7 |
29,496 |
50.1 |
* Middletown and regional total after deducting institutional population,
which amounted to 4,067 in 1950 and 3,831 in 1960. The population of
Middletown as given in the U.S. Census was 29,711 in 1950 and 33,250 in
1960; for the Region it was 49,606 in 1950 and 62,746 in 1960. The
institutional population was not included in the 1940 census.
Comparisons: State and Region
Connecticut is a rapidly growing state in the regional complex of the
north-eastern seaboard. Today’s development is one of decentralized urban
spread at a relatively low density, compared with that of past
generations. Industry, business, homes, the automobile, all require much more
space than was needed in the past. We can foresee a total development of areas
such as Connecticut within a relatively few decades under the type of growth
which is now established in our communities and controlled in large part by
their zoning policies.
For these reasons we have used the term "target population" and "target growth"
to represent the complete development of the community according to its plan.
This "target" for Middletown appears likely to be reached somewhere around 1990
or 2000. Unforeseen happenings may slow down or speed up the pace of development,
but this does not alter the quantitative factors on which to base the plan.
The growth of a community or region is caused partly by the natural increase
in population, that is the excess of births over deaths, and partly because of
new people moving in. Between 1950 and 1960 the population of Connecticut increased
by 527,954 residents. The number of births in the State exceeded the number of
deaths in that period by 249,911. This means that 233,043 persons moved into the
State over and above the number who may have moved out. Slightly over half of the
population increase was caused by natural increase and a little less than half by
net in-migration.
Table 2 shows the increase in population of the State, the Midstate Region and
the local communities in the past two decades. It shows the proportion of the
growth due to natural increase and that due to in-migration. Between 1940 and 1950,
the Region grew at only about half the rate of the State as a whole. After 1950 the
growth rate increased, exceeding the State's rate from 1950 to 1960. In the 1940-50
decade, the surrounding towns had a reasonable growth, but Middletown's own increase,
as given by the census, was more than offset by the inclusion in 1950 of the institutional
population. From 1950 to 1960 Middletown experienced a growth in its own residential
population greater than in any decade since the consolidation of City and Town.
The trends of population are shown graphically in Chart 1. This is on a semilogarithmic base
so that the same slope of line indicates the sate rate of change. whether it is
that of a large unit such as the State as a whole or whether it is a single community
at the bottom of the chart. If the State were to continue at the same rate of growth
which it experienced from 1950 to 1960, it would reach a population of 3,200,000 in 1970 and
4,000,000 in 1980. Similarly, the Midstate Region would have 76,000 residents by 1970 and 98,500
by 1980. Middletown's own resident population increased by slightly
less than 15 percent from 1950 to 1960. This same rate of growth would mean 33,750
residents by 1970 and 38,700 by 1980.
TABLE 2
POPULATION CHANGES, 1940 - 1960
| |
Increase,
1940-50 |
Increase,
1950-60 |
|
| Number |
Percent |
Number |
Percent |
Due to Natural
Increase |
Due to Net
In-Migration |
| State of Conn. |
298,038 |
17.4 |
527,954 |
26.3 |
14.7 |
11.6 |
| Midstate Region* |
4,090 |
9.9 |
13,375 |
29.3 |
16.0 |
13.3 |
| Middletown* |
-851 |
-3.2 |
3,775 |
14.7 |
14.9 |
-0.2 |
| Cromwell |
1,005 |
30.5 |
2,494 |
58.1 |
19.0 |
39.1 |
| Portland |
865 |
20.5 |
2,310 |
44.5 |
17.7 |
26.8 |
| East Hampton |
1,045 |
35.2 |
1,403 |
35.1 |
13.6 |
21.5 |
| Haddam |
567 |
26.9 |
830 |
31.5 |
10.4 |
21.1 |
| Durham |
706 |
65.2 |
1,292 |
71.5 |
22.8 |
48.7 |
| Middlefield |
753 |
61.2 |
1,272 |
64.2 |
25.0 |
39.2 |
| Increase in Region Outside
Middletown |
4,941 |
33.0 |
9,601 |
48.3 |
17.4 |
30.9 |
* Excluding Institutional Population
* Data on natural increase and migration from Burnight and Ingalls, A Decade of Population Change, Dec. 1961, University of Connecticut, Storrs.
The Target Population
There are many factors which may change the present rate of growth, both in the Region
and in the City. The Middletown area is located between the more densely developed
regions around Hartford and New Haven. It occupies a location between Hartford
and the lower Valley area which is rapidly expanding. Most important of all are
the major transportation routes created by the express highway system which is
again putting Middletown on the principle arteries of movement. An idea of the future
may be gained by a look at the relationship between the local community, its region
and the entire State. The Midstate Region's share of the State's population has changed little
in recent years, as shown by the figures in Table 4. On the other hand, the town's
outside Middletown have assumed a considerably larger proportion of the regional
population.
In connection with its regional planning studies, the Connecticut Development Commission
has prepared projects of population for the State and for its various regions,
carried ahead to the year 2000. These are summarized in Table 3. Different methods of projection
have arrived at differing figures which represent a range of high and low projections
within the actual count will probably fall.
TABLE 3
STATE AND REGIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
BY CONNECTICUT DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION
|
Year
|
State
|
Midstate Region
|
Region as
|
| |
High
|
Low
|
High
|
Low
|
% of State
|
|
1970
|
3,068,000
|
2,847,000
|
74,000
|
70,000
|
2.4 to 2.5
|
|
1980
|
3,710,000
|
3,245,000
|
89,000
|
78,000
|
2.4 to 2.5
|
|
1990
|
4,558,000
|
3,992,000
|
109,000
|
98,000
|
2.4 to 2.5
|
|
2000
|
5,624,000
|
4,707,000
|
135,000
|
116,000
|
2.4 to 2.5
|
Connecticut is essentially a group of urban oriented communities, all but a few
of which have a relatively low density of development. Most industrial development
today is taking place in areas where considerable space is available and much of
the residential development is also at a low density. With the exception of urban
renewal projects, the preponderance of development is taking place in presently
vacant land.
Some idea of future growth patterns can be obtained from the trend of migration into
and out of Connecticut towns in the past decade. The study of Burnight and Ingalls,
cited above, gives a picture of these trends, tabulating the population increase
from 1950 to 1960 in each town due to natural increase and that due to migration.
These show that the rate of net in-migration into the Midstate Region is slightly
higher than for the State as a whole. Although in Middletown itself the increase
due to the excess of births over deaths was cancelled by a net out-migration,
there was a high degree of in-migration into the surrounding towns. In the Midstate Region,
outside of Middletown, the net in-migration caused 64 percent of the total growth
in the last decade, compared to 44 percent for the State as a whole. In three of
the six towns, the net in-migration amounted to twice the natural increase. Middlesex
County had the second highest rate of growth of any of the counties in the last decade,
following only Tolland County. Clearly the Midstate Region is a growth area.
The projections made by the Connecticut Development Commission as listed in Table 3 conclude
that the Midstate Region will grow at approximately the same rate as the State
and that the Region will continue to have from 2.4 to 2.5 percent of the State's resident.
We are inclined to believe that the Region will have an increasing share of the total population,
because of its geographical location, especially with respect to expressways, and because of the
availability of land and growth potential of its towns. For the purpose of the present
study, we have established the projections summarized in Table 4.
Under the assumption that Connecticut's population will, by the end of the century,
be around 5.5 million, the population of the Midstate Region is likely to reach a
figure close to 145,000 or 150,000.
TABLE 4
MIDDLETOWN AND MIDSTATE REGION
IN RELATION TO POPULATION OF STATE
| |
State
|
Midstate Region *
|
Middletown
|
| - |
Number
|
% of State
|
Number
|
% of Region
|
|
1940
|
1,709,242
|
41,449
|
2.42
|
26,495
|
63.9
|
|
1950
|
2,007,280
|
45,539
|
2.26
|
25,644
|
56.3
|
|
1960
|
2,535,234
|
58,915
|
2.33
|
29,419
|
49.9
|
|
1970
|
3,100,000
|
74,500
|
2.40
|
35,700
|
48.0
|
|
1980
|
3,700,000
|
92,500
|
2.50
|
42,500
|
46.0
|
|
1990
|
4,500,000
|
117,000
|
2.60
|
52,600
|
45.0
|
|
2000
|
5,500,000
|
148,500
|
2.70
|
65,000
|
44.0
|
Middletown's part of the Region's population has dropped in the last two decades,
in the face of the very rapid growth of the other towns. However, the reduction in
its percentage was not as great for the 1950-60 decade as for the previous one.
Middletown has better public utilities available than most of the other communities
and other factors such as zoning and highway expansion may favor the City as compared
with outlying places. It seems likely that Middletown's share of the Region's
population will not drop as rapidly as in recent years. The population figures
given in Table 4 are exclusively of future institutional residents.
From this study it is seen that Middletown's population is likely to reach a figure
in the neighborhood of 65,000 by the closing years of the century. Today's planning
has the chief purpose of indicating the land and other facilities needed to take care
of the future residents. if their number is greatly underestimated, the City will
have troubles of past communities to find space where it does not exist. If as the years
go by, Middletown shoes signs of reaching a higher figure than projected here, the Plan
can be revised to provide for a somewhat more intensive use of land, but following
the same general pattern.
|
