ECONOMIC BACKGROUND FOR THE PLAN
Middletown's growth is obviously dependent on its economic progress. The City has four potential sides
to its economic base.
Elements in the Economic Base
In connection with the Community Renewal Program, under urban renewal, a detailed economic study of land
utilization and marketability has been made by Messrs. Raymond and May, consultants to the Middletown
Redevelopment Agency. This study was primarily designed to show the acreage of land which is likely to
be required to fill the needs of residential, industrial and commercial expansion to 1980. At that date
the City may be assumed to reach a population approaching 45,000, something like two thirds of the
ultimate figure envisioned by the present planning study, to be achieved by the end of this century.
The Raymond and May report* gives the following estimates of potential acreage demand to 1980:
Industrial Land
It is apparent that the Connecticut towns collectively have planned and zoned for industrial development
of a total acreage far in excess of what can be reasonably be expected to be required at any time in the
foreseeable future. Many will be disappointed in the large amount of proposed industrial land which will
remain vacant. Proposed industrial areas will become developed in the order of their relative desirability
to the prospective occupant. While criteria for site selection may vary with the type of use, the principal
factors are convenient transportation, available labor and necessary utilities. The State's expressway system
brings good highway connections to many points in Connecticut. Similarly, it facilitates the travel of
employees, which results in making a much larger pool available to a single location than may be locally
resident.
Our present plan allocates a total of about 1,600 acres for new industrial development, in addition to
the very large areas in the southeast corner now under the control of the utility companies, a quarry and
the United States government. The proposed acreage has convenient access to the expressway system. How
much these acres will appeal to industrial concerns and how rapidly they will be developed will depend
greatly on the facilities for water supply and sanitary sewerage to be furnished by the City. Middletown has
certain advantages over the rural towns in the matter of public utilities, since it has the municipal
organization already in existence and can readily extend its services. This is discussed in the chapter
on Water Supply and Sanitary Sewerage.
The Community Renewal Program report estimate of 160 acres of industrial land to be the demand up to the
year 1980 is based on a review of various factors in the recent trends of industrial growth. But in the
competitive market today, the City must be able to offer a considerable choice to any prospective purchasers.
There must be enough land to meet even a considerably larger demand, up to the planning target date of 2000,
than could appear certain today from the trends of the last few years. Another reason to allocate a large
amount of land for industry is to spread the ownership and to prevent a small number of owners from
jeopardizing the City's promotional activities by refusing to sell except at exorbitant
figures.
If all of the proposed industrial acreage shown on the plan is fully developed by the year 2000, and even
if the average of workers per acre falls to a low figure of 10, there would be a total of around 16,000
jobs or something like 3.5 times the number in Middletown today. As the population is expected to double
in the same period, this would place Middletown in the position of an employment center bringing in workers who
reside in other towns, whereas today a certain number of Middletown workers must go outside for employment.
This situation would tens to increase population in neighboring towns, which would give more strength
to Middletown as a retail and service center.
Middletown as a Commercial Center
In the categories of general merchandise, apparel, furniture and home furnishings, 83 percent of the floor area is
located in the central business district. The floor area presently occupied by these categories in the
central business district amounts to 326,000 square feet. Raymond and may estimate that there will be a
demand between now and 1980 for an additional 172,000 square feet for these three types of retail business.
This is in addition to the new Sears Roebuck store.
Food stores occupy a total floor area of 106,000 square feet, of which only about one quarter is located in the
central business district. Raymond and May estimate that an additional 30,000 square feet will be required
for food stores. Undoubtedly, most of these will not be in the central district. Drug and proprietary
stores account for 15,575 square feet of floor area in the City, of which 75 percent is in the central
business district. The potential growth to 1980 is estimated at 7,000 square feet, 5,000 square feet of this
total in the central area. Eating and drinking places occupy a total of 72,000 square feet, of which
45 percent is in the central business district. Raymond and May estimate a demand of 1980 for 19,000
additional square feet. Something like half of this total might be in the central business district.
Automotive businesses, including gas stations, occupy large amount of floor space, about 800,000 square
feet in the City. Only about 150,000 square feet of the total is in the central business district. Raymond
and May estimate a potential demand to 1980 in these categories of 265,000 square feet of additional
floor area. Doubtless most of this will be outside the central area.
The category which includes lumber, building materials and hardware occupies a total floor area of 295,000
square feet, of which, 122,000 are in the central district. Raymond and May estimate that 100,000 square
feet of additional floor space will be required to 1980. The nature of this business makes it probable
that most of the new floor area will be located outside the central area.
There is evidence that Middletown's position as a retail trade center has been slipping. it has not retained
its former high rate of sales per capita in relation to State and regional averages. On the other hand,
the volume of retail and service business is very important in the economic base as shown by the amount
of employment in that sector. The City is faced with the competition of outside shopping centers which are being
established at strategic points where traffic conditions are favorable. In particular, the present central
business district suffers from many obsolescent structures, traffic congestion and deficiency of parking. However,
Middletown has the advantage of being a long-established commercial center for an area which is now growing
rapidly.
Middletown has taken certain steps to improve its commercial position, especially through the urban renewal
program. The improvements brought about by the Center Street Project and the establishment of the Sears
Roebuck retail outlet point the way to continued progress. But the City and its business interests must
take very prompt action to capture as large a part as possible of the potential regional market.
A central business district of the type which is possible in Middletown has a pulling power which is not
likely to be found in any but a very large outlying shopping center. The central district contains more stores
with a greater variety of goods than is possible in the typical outlying center. It has a certain backlog of
customers from the residents of the in-town neighborhoods.
Middletown's central district would suffer very adversely from the spreading of retail and other
commercial activities to outlying spots, even to locations within the city limits. Improvements to the central business district
which are included in the present plan, and which are feasible to accomplish because of the urban renewal
program, can give Middletown a thoroughly modern shopping center of regional importance. The importance of
the central business district of Middletown is stressed in the Raymond and May report.
TABLE 7
A community must earn its collective living, just like any individual. Approximately 40 percent of
Middletown's employed residents derive their livelihood from industrial activities, but some of these
work outside the City. Another 26 percent are engaged in commercial activities, retail trade and services.
The third major sector of Middletown's community income comes from activities (or more specifically the payrolls)
of the institutions located here. The plan for future development must provide space and a good environment
for the continued progress of these parts of the economic base. We are concerned now with determining how
much land and what kind should be allocated to manufacturing, and other types of industry, to retail
commerce and service trades and to institutions or similar organizations which may contribute to the
community's income.
Housing
1,200 acres
Industry
160 acres
Retail
14 acres
Other Commercial
7 acres
The purpose of the Community Renewal Program study has been to gauge the probable market demand for
land, whereas it should be the purpose of the City's long-range plan to provide space for the maximum expansion which
can be foreseen. In the matter of industrial land, the Plan provides far mare space than the estimated
1980 demand given by the Community Renewal Plan Study. The amount of land which one town can allocate to
industry is not determined by local policy alone. The average plant could equally well br located in any
of a number of neighboring communities which are actually in competition with each other in attracting
a prospective enterprise. Therefore, there is no formula on which to base the number of acres of land
to be planned for industry in Middletown.
Unlike the trends of industrial development, the volume of commercial activities and the amount of land
they will need will bear a close relationship to the future population of Middletown and of its surrounding
region. The Land Use and Marketability Study of Raymond and May gives much data on the present commercial
development and includes estimates of future demand to 1980. Their report includes a tabulation of existing
retail floor space by retail categories within the City (1963). The central business district contains
37.1 percent of the total retail floor area, while 15.3 percent is located in the Washington Street
business district. The remaining 47.6 percent is located in the rest of the City, much of it in the
South Main Street area.
ANTICIPATED AREA REQUIREMENTS FOR RETAIL BUSINESS
| Retail Category | Present Total** Floor Area sq. ft. |
Assumed Expansion to 2000 | Additional CBD sq. ft. |
Floor Area Outside CBD sq. ft. |
| General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Furnishings | 394,280 | 100% | 400,000 | |
| Automotive, Lumber, Building Materials | 1,114,410 | 50% | 550,000 | |
| Food Stores | 106,050 | 100% | 25,000 | 85,000 |
| Eating and Drink Places | 72,120 | 100% | 50,000 | 25,000 |
| Other | 148,310 | 100% | 75,000 | 75,000 |
| 1,835,170 | 550,00 | 735,000 | ||
| Present stores in CBD, except automotive, lumber and building materials | 458,245 | |||
| Present automotive, lumber and building materials expected to remain in CBD | 75,000 | |||
| Total floor area anticipated in CBD, year 2000 | 1,083,145 | |||
| Present commercial establishments outside CBD and present commercial expected to move from CBD | 1,387,555 | |||
| Total floor area anticipated outside CBD, year 2000 | 2,122,555 | |||
The estimates given in Table 7 indicate that the central business district should have eventual space for about one million square feet of floor area, some of which may be on more than one story. it must also have ample space for movement, both vehicular and pedestrian, and for the parking of automobiles. This will require a total gross area of something like 100 acres.
For retail establishments outside the central area, there appears likely to be a total floor area by the year 2000 of two million square feet, most of which will probably be one one floor. The net land area required will be in the range of five or six times this amount or around 300 acres.
Of the categories of business listed in Table 7, that of General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Furnishings belongs entirely in the central district. This district should also attract additional eating and drinking places, drug and proprietary stores and other stores of a specialty or variety nature. On the other hand, automotive business and lumber and building materials more properly belong in outlying areas such as Washington Street complex and South Main Street. The Raymond and May report gives a potential additional floor area to 1980 of 619,000 square feet for all commercial types in the whole City. This is equivalent to approximately 14 acres of floor space. Approximately a third of this may be expected to be in the central business district. The long-range plan must look further ahead than 1980 and must take into consideration the possible expansion to the target size of the City and Region, rather than the market potential of the next 15 years. Since the plan contemplates a doubling of population, both in the City and in the Midstate Region, it would appear necessary to provide at least for a doubling of the present business space in the categories which belong in the central business district. Automotive, lumber and building materials and similar types are more likely to be decentralized, in some cases, in neighboring towns. Therefore, we have anticipated only a 50 percent increase in needed floor area in these categories. There is, however, more flexibility in their expansion because of greater availability of outlying land.
Office Space and Transient Accommodations
When the State's expressway system is completed, Middletown will be in a most favorable
location for business
travel to all parts of Connecticut. We may expect a potential demand for sites here for many types of distributive
businesses and sales representatives who wish to have a good site from which to cover Connecticut. The
Raymond and May report places the potential demand for professional and nonprofessional office space to
serve the locality at 162,000 square feet, with another 90,000 square feet for selected service activities.
The present Plan anticipates that most of this office space will be located in separate buildings around the fringes of the immediate central business area. With the progressive redevelopment of downtown Middletown under urban renewal, there should be adequate land for office space to accommodate the demand for both local services and regional businesses. Any accurate estimate of the acreage which may be occupied by the various types of office establishments in the year 2000 would be pure conjecture at this time. Since office buildings may be placed in close proximity to apartment buildings or to motel and similar transient establishments, there is a flexibility in the use of the land which the Plan allocates to such a combination of uses.
The Raymond and May report estimates the demand for transient motel-hotel facilities at about 100 rooms. There is a complete lack of such accommodations in downtown Middletown today and proposed activities at Wesleyan University appear likely to augment the need. The present Plan includes good sites for new facilities of this type, with space for expansion when the future demand exceeds today's estimates.
* Raymond and May Associates, Land Use and Marketability Study, Community Renewal Program, September, 1964.
** From Raymond and May Report